Paul wasn't writing about American presidential elections, but he did know how many factors affect our decisions.
For example, Robert G. Kaiser writes in the Washington Post that for voters vote emotions triumph over logic:
"Polls, the lifeblood of American politics, can also tell us what people think -- which candidate they favor, how much they approve of a president, whether they believe the war in Iraq was worth fighting. But polls are science, exploiting the mathematical laws of random samples to explain what "everyone" thinks by asking the right 1,200 or so Americans the same questions. Focus groups, by contrast, are art. Their success depends on the skills of the person leading the discussion. A talented focus-grouper tries to expose the emotional juice that can both explain and alter poll results. "
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/29/AR2008062901875.html
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